美国与中国已经处於冷战狀态与吴国光教授商榷
最近浏览视频，看到了吴国光教授与「三个水枪手」的访谈节目，访谈的主题是：中美进入新冷战了吗？在访谈中吴国光教授表示：不赞同中美已经进入新冷战的观点、认为冷战在本质上与现在的钐煌耆谎幸韵两个特点还不具备：一、冷战的两个阵营是意识形态和政治制度的对立为主；现在的美国并没有将中国当成意识形态和政治制度方面的对手；二、冷战要形成两个阵营，在这方面以中共为首的专制政权开始抱团已经比较明显，但是美国还没有与其它民主国家形成明显的政治同盟；这两条证明冷战还不具备基本的特点。
吴国光教授与「三个水枪手」的访谈（视频截图）
吴国光教授是著名的政治学者，他的观点具有一定的代表性，而美中关系是影响到整个世界的政治格局、关系到世界的安全与稳定，关系到中国社会未来的政治发展走向。因此正确的定位美中关系在政治上意义重大，因此本人愿意借此阐明自己的观点，并与吴国光教授商榷：
要谈冷战问题首先要明确冷战的概念，弄清什麽叫冷战？按照互联网上的解释：冷战是除直接军事交战以外的一切敌对行动的总称。冷战的性质就是双方关系紧张、严重对立、相互对抗；冷战的方式和手段就是：舆论战、渗透颠覆、封锁制裁、军备竞赛、和平演变、代理人战争等一切非直接军事交战以外的方法。
其次就是冷战不是以公开宣布为準，而是一种事实侯态的存在，就蠁|次世界大战和美苏冷战没有谁事先宣布正式开战，而是客观事实证明已经处於交战钐
再有就是冷战是双方的，是互相的对抗，即可以是两个国家之间，也可以是两个政治集团之间。
因此根据冷战的性质和定义，根据美中两国目前的实际政治、经济、外交现睿救巳衔夤饨淌诘模合衷诿乐两国没有进入新冷战，以及美国并没有将中国当成意识形态和政治制度方面的对手；美国这边还没有与其它民主国家形成明显的政治同盟的两个基本特点均不能成立。
吕洪来：美国与中国已经处於冷战钐
首先：美国与中国在意识形态与政治制度上的根本对立是世人皆知的客观事实，中共对美国长期以来的颠覆、渗透、破坏、知识产权窃取、输出毒品祸害美国社会，这些都是不争的事实，也是中国对美国的冷战手段。过去三十年人们之所以没有明显感觉到美中之间的冷战，是因为以美国为首的西方民主阵营施行的是：通过经济融合，促使中国实现政治转型的的策略，只不过目前看来这个策略显然是失败了，但是这绝不等於美中之间没有冷战；
第二、美国与其它西方民主国家早就已经形成政治同盟：如北约集团、美日韩同盟、美国与其它亚太国家建立的如美新奥、美菲、美台同盟，这些军事与政治同盟都是以政治制度与意识形态为基础建立的，是不会因为某项具体政策的变化而改变的；
第三、由於通过经济融合，促使中国实现政治转型策略的失败，最近几年美国已经重新调整了对中国的战略，就是将中国列为了最大的战略竞争对手，对中国采取威慑、防、限制、反制的新战略，可以看看这两年美国国会参众两院通过的一系列针对中国的法案：
《台湾保证实施法案》
《战略国土情报和执法以抵R中共法》
《2025年对华技术转让管控法案》
《美中人工智能能力脱钩法案》
《2024年保护美国创新和经济安全免受中共侵害法案》
《反制中共无人机法案》
《结束中国主导美国电动汽车法案》
《通过外国投资保障帮助挫败中国法案》
《美国人工智能与中国脱钩法案》
这些明确针对中共政权、防中共政权、反制中共政权的法案，就是美国对中国的冷战。
第四、特别是在对中国的政策上，犟化战略竞争、维护美国核心利益，遏制中共的扩张、将中国视为美国最大的竞争对手、将中国视为对美国最大的挑战和威胁、已经成为美国朝野和两党的广泛共识，这就是表明美国与中国进行冷战，已经成为了美国朝野和两党的广泛共识，不是任何个人所能够左右和改变的。
第五、就是美中贸易战已经远远超出了美中两国之间的围，成为了一场国际性的围堵中国的经济大战，在目前美国政府与各国已经签署的贸易协议中，都加入了防止中国产品进行转口贸易和洗产地的毒丸条款，这就等於是所有与美国保持贸易正常关系的国家，形成了一个在国际贸易中共同防和围堵中国的阵营，大家说这不是冷战又是什麽？！
第六、就在本人準备动手写这篇文章的时候，美国发布�2025年《国家安全战略》报告，国家战略报告明确美国专]於被视为美国核心利益区的西半球，以及印太地区，特别是中国台湾问题；
对於中国和台湾地区，2025年《国家安全战略》批评历届美国政府试图把中国纳入基於规则的国际秩序。 新版战略将中国视为主要的经济与技术竞争者及潜在军事挑战者，报告要求盟友必须加大投入，积极参与集体防R，集中力量对抗中国的「掠夺性经济行为」，透过威慑避免与中国发生直接军事冲突。这就是等於美国公开宣布了对中共政权的新冷战！
吴国光教授之所以得出上述结论，从访谈看主要是因为吴教授对川普新政府的一些外交政策和措施存在误解，忽略了美国政府是三权分立。需要指出的是：冷战不是谁发动的，而是两种截然对立的意识形态和政治制度无法和平共处，又要避免热战的必然。
中共的党国体制一经建立，即意味著中共选择了与人类文明相对立，也意味著与人类文明世界冷战的开始，只是由於一段历史时期内，双方出於战略的需要，以及中共被迫选择改革开放和韬光养晦，使得这种意识形态与政治制度的对立得到缓和。
中国的政治制度不变，美中不可能真正的友好，现如今40年的改革开放已经走到了尽头，美中双方的战略需求都早已不复存在，公开的冷战就成为必然。冷战不是谁宣布的，而是事实存在的，是两种意识形态、两种价值观、两种政治制度的实实在在的较量和博弈。今天已经不是美中之间是否存在冷战的问题，而是冷战是否会进一步升级的问题，是零和博弈最终是什麽结果的问题。
吕洪来
2025年12月8日星期一
The United States and China are already in a state of Cold War.
Irecently watched a video interview with Professor Wu Guoguang and the"Three Water Gunmen." The topic of the interview was: Has the US andChina entered a new Cold War? In the interview, Professor Wu Guoguang statedthat he does not agree with the view that the US and China have entered a newCold War, and believes that the Cold War is not entirely the same as thecurrent situation in essence, and does not yet possess the following twocharacteristics: First, the two camps of the Cold Warwere primarily opposed in terms of ideology and political system; the UnitedStates does not currently regard China as an adversary in terms of ideology andpolitical system. Second, for the Cold War to form two camps, it is quiteevident that authoritarian regimes led by the CCP have begun to band together,but the United States has not yet formed a clear political alliance with otherdemocratic countries. These two points prove that the Cold War does not yetpossess the basic characteristics of the Cold War.
An interview with ProfessorWu Guoguang and the "Three Water Gunmen" (video screenshot)
ProfessorWu Guoguang is a renowned political scientist, and his views are representativeto a certain extent. The US-China relationship influences the global politicallandscape, relates to world security and stability, and is crucial to thefuture political development of Chinese society. Therefore, a correctunderstanding of the US-China relationship is of great political significance.I would like to take this opportunity to clarify my own views and discuss themwith Professor Wu Guoguang:
Todiscuss the Cold War, we must first clarify its concept. What exactly is theCold War? According to internet explanations, the Cold War is a general termfor all hostile actions other than direct military combat. The nature of theCold War is characterized by tense, severely antagonistic, and confrontationalrelations between the two sides. Its methods and means include: propagandawarfare, infiltration and subversion, blockades and sanctions, arms races,peaceful evolution, proxy wars, and all other methods other than directmilitary combat.
Secondly,the Cold War was not defined by public declarations, but rather by theexistence of a fact and a state of affairs. Just like the two World Wars andthe Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, neither side declared warbeforehand; rather, objective facts proved that they were already in a state ofconflict.
Furthermore,the Cold War was a bilateral conflict, a mutual confrontation, which couldoccur between two countries or between two political blocs.
Therefore,based on the nature and definition of the Cold War, and based on the currentpolitical, economic, and diplomatic situation between the United States andChina, I believe that Professor Wu Guoguang's two basic characteristics—thatthe United States and China have not entered a new Cold War, and that theUnited States does not regard China as an opponent in terms of ideology andpolitical system, and that the United States has not yet formed a clearpolitical alliance with other democratic countries—are both untenable.
Lü Honglai: The UnitedStates and China are already in a state of Cold War.
First,the fundamental ideological and political opposition between the United Statesand China is an objective fact known to all. The CCP's long-standingsubversion, infiltration, sabotage, intellectual property theft, and drugexport that harms American society are undeniable facts and constitute China'sCold War tactics against the United States. The reason people haven't clearlyfelt a Cold War between the US and China over the past thirty years is becausethe Western democratic camp, led by the United States, implemented a strategyof using economic integration to facilitate China's political transformation.However, this strategy has clearly failed, but this absolutely does not meanthat there was no Cold War between the US and China.
Second,the United States has long formed political alliances with other Westerndemocracies, such as NATO, the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, and alliancesbetween the United States and other Asia-Pacific countries, such as the US-NewZealand-Ottoman alliance, the US-Philippines alliance, and the US-Taiwanalliance. These military and political alliances are based on political systemsand ideologies and will not change due to changes in any specific policy.
Third,due to the failure of its strategy to facilitate China's politicaltransformation through economic integration, the United States has recentlyreadjusted its strategy towards China, designating China as its biggeststrategic competitor and adopting a new strategy of deterrence, containment,restriction, and countermeasures. One can examine the series of bills targetingChina passed by the US Senate and House of Representatives in the past twoyears:
**Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act*
**Strategic Territorial Intelligence and Law Enforcement to Counter the CCP Act*
*TechnologyTransfer Controls with China Act of 2025*
*U.S.-ChinaArtificial Intelligence Capabilities Decoupling Act*
*ProtectingU.S. Innovation and Economic Security from the CCP Act of 2024*
*Counteringthe CCP's Drones Act*
*EndingChina's Dominance in U.S. Electric Vehicles Act*
*Helpingto Frustrate China Through Foreign Investment Assurance Act*
*U.S.Artificial Intelligence and China Decoupling Act*
Thesebills, which are clearly aimed at, prevent, and counter the Chinese CommunistParty regime, constitute the United States' Cold War against China.
Fourth,especially in its policy toward China, the strengthening of strategiccompetition, the safeguarding of core U.S. interests, the containment of theCCP's expansion, and the view of China as the U.S.'s biggest competitor and thegreatest challenge and threat to the U.S. have become a broad consensus acrossthe U.S. government and both parties. This demonstrates that a Cold War betweenthe U.S. and China has become a broad consensus across the U.S. governmentand both parties, and it is not something that any individual can influence orchange.
Fifth,the US-China trade war has far exceeded the scope of the two countries and hasbecome an international economic war to contain China. Currently, all tradeagreements signed by the US government with various countries include poisonpill clauses to prevent the re-export of Chinese products and the laundering ofcountry of origin. This means that all countries maintaining normal traderelations with the US have formed a united front to jointly prevent and containChina in international trade. What else is this but the Cold War?!
Sixth,just as I was preparing to write this article, the United States released the2025 National Security Strategy report. The National Security Strategy reportclearly states that the United States is focusing on the Western Hemisphere,which is considered to be a core area of U.S. interests, as well asthe Indo-Pacific region, especially the Taiwan issue.
RegardingChina and Taiwan, the 2025 National Security Strategy criticizes successiveU.S. administrations for attempting to integrate China into the rules-basedinternational order. The new strategy identifies China as a major economic andtechnological competitor and a potential military challenger, demanding thatallies increase their investment and actively participate in collectivedefense, focusing their efforts on countering China's "predatory economicbehavior" and avoiding direct military conflict through deterrence. Thisis tantamount to the U.S. openly declaring a new Cold War against the CCPregime!
ProfessorWu Guoguang reached the above conclusion primarily because, based on theinterview, he misunderstood some of the Trump administration's foreign policyand measures, overlooking the fact that the US government operates on aseparation of powers. It should be pointed out that the Cold War was notinitiated by anyone, but rather an inevitable consequence of two diametricallyopposed ideologies and political systems being unable to coexist peacefullywhile simultaneously trying to avoid hot war.
Oncethe CCP's party-state system was established, it meant that the CCP had chosento oppose human civilization, and it also meant the beginning of a cold warwith the civilized world. However, due to strategic needs of both sides duringa certain period of history, and the CCP's forced choice to reform and open upand to bide its time, this ideological and political conflict was eased.
Withoutchanges to China's political system, genuine friendship between the US andChina is impossible. The 40 years of reform and opening up have come to an end,and the strategic needs of both sides have long since disappeared, making anopen Cold War inevitable. The Cold War is not something declared by anyone; itis a reality, a real contest and game between two ideologies, two values, andtwo political systems. Today, the question is no longer whether a Cold Warexists between the US and China, but whether it will escalate further, and whatthe ultimate outcome of this zero-sum game will be.
Lu Honglai,
Monday, December 8, 2025